This page is intended to help hikers plan trip dates based on annual trail conditions including snow, rain, temperature, and fire. All the information here pertains only to the PCT within Washington state.

Once the trail is actively melting (usually June & July) then I publish weekly Trail Reports as another planing resource.

On May 1st I post my prediction for when the PCT in WA will be 95% snow free that spring. I revise that prediction on Zero Day (explained below). Then in the last weekly trail report I see how close I was. In the last two years I've gotten it within 48 hours. I'm not a meteorologist, just a geek on the spectrum.

Why avoid snow?

Some people avoid backpacking during the spring snow melt because the compact snow on the trail can be wet, slippery, and icy, because melting snow makes the trail and campsites muddy, because melting snow makes the streams high and crossings more difficult, because snow bridges become dangerous, and primarily because they do not want to carry crampons, microspikes, ice axes, or other snow gear. So, I wrote this for people trying to determine when they can safely begin a hike without that gear.

Note: While you wait for overnight backpacking, spring day hiking on snow can be a fantastic experience if you are prepared for it, especially after a freezing night when the snow is hard. There are fewer people on the trail, visibility is very high, and you can enjoy the long days.

Prepare to encounter spring snow

It is impossible to guarantee that you will not encounter some snow on the PCT at any time. Blizzards in August have happened. This information is meant to be a good resource for general predictions of trail conditions. ultimately you are responsible for your own choices, preparations, and safety.

Personally speaking, If I'm going to leave any snow equipment at home during transition season it will be traction devices not arrest devices. If you have traction but no arrest, you are betting your life that you will not fall. If you have arrest but no traction, then you are planning to fall, but still be safe. When the snow is slushy neither traction nor arrest work well, but that still leads me to the same decision.

For hikers, I think the Black Diamond Carbon Whippet is the perfect transition season arrest tool to carry, as opposed to an ice axe. I love this tool because its dual-function and you are more likely to have it in your hand when you need it. I was made aware of this tool by Ned Tibbits. (Normally I do not mention brand names, but only Black Diamond makes a Wippet.) In case you encounter unexpected snow and have only trekking poles, it's a good idea to learn and practice self-arrest using a trekking pole. It's not nearly as effective as an ice axe or whippet, but a good skill to have as a back-up.

Spring Planning and Predicting

Its folly to predict snow melt before the snow stops accumulating. That is typically by May 1st, but not always. Examples of late spring snowfall include 2024 June 16th, and 2013 June 22nd. In 2001 the snow completely melted, then the next day it snowed 16 inches.

In the last thirty years, the latest melt was in 2011 when the trail was not clear until August 1st and the last snow accumulation was on July 2nd. The next latest was in 2022 July 16 and 2002 July 15. There is no clear year-over-year trend. The trail is not emerging earlier each year as one might expect. It still seems quite random.

Snow Melt Variables

Elevation: Typically, lower elevations melt out before higher elevations, both because of relative snow depth and because of temperatures. Overall, the average elevation of the PCT increases as you move from south to north, with the exception of Goat Rocks.

Depth and Distribution: The distribution of snow along the trail, from north to south, is rarely even, and rarely correlates to elevation. That is mostly because of differences in the rain shadow between the Pacific Ocean and the trail. For example, Mount Baker and North Cascades National Park force moisture out of the air before clouds can get to Section L (high), yet nothing blocks saturated Pacific clouds from making it to Indian Heaven in the south (low). The variables of elevation and depth may counter each other. For example, in 2023 the snow was much deeper in the south and got consistently less deep moving to the north. The last part of the trail to melt in 2023 was near the Muddy River bridge, and that was two weeks after the northernmost section was melted out. 2024 had a similar snow distribution but less pronounced.

Spring 2026 had an unusual distribution of snow; The snow pack was well below average along the southern 3/4 of the trail, but far above average in the northernmost section. The 2026 snowpack peaked on March 15th. That day it was in the 90th percentile at Harts Pass, exactly in the median at Lyman Lake (Suiattle Pass), and only in the 20th percentile at Stevens Pass. The snowpack was even thinner further south.

Topography: And of course, the snow always melts off southern slopes first, and northern slopes last, exposed areas first, and tree covered areas last. Every section of the PCT has some mix of those features.

Temperature On June 28th 2021 it was 108F at Snoqualmie Pass, 40 degrees above average. I watched the melt closely that year to see how much the heat accelerated it. I was surprised to see the melt speed up only slightly. What appears to speed up the melt is the daily low much more than the daily high. Cascade melts are very slow when it freezes every night. They speed up significantly when the nights stay above freezing.

Step 1. Watch Snow depth sensors

There are weather stations near the PCT that have UHF snow depth sensors and snow water equivalent sensors. These can be used to get a sense of snow depth, distribution (north-south), and melt rate. By May 1st current depths can be compared to historical data. That can offer a ball-park prediction of the melt rate. As sensors at lower elevations zero-out it helps narrow the prediction.

The higher elevation sensors worth watching are:

Harts Pass (6,490 ft), mm 2625
Green Valley (6,230), mm 2335
Lyman Lake (5,980), mm 2555
White Pass Upper (5,800), mm 2294
Surprise Lakes (4,290), mm 2218

I maintain a chart that tracks 10 weather stations year over year to get a sense of the snow distribution and melt rate for the current season.

Zero Day + 3 weeks

Watching the snow depth sensors zero out is merely an early indicator because all of these sensors are on a flat or southern slope and in full sun. So, even when all of them read zero (Zero Day), the trail is still mostly snow covered and it's still not safe to backpack without snow equipment.

On average, three weeks after zero day the entire PCT is snow-free enough to hike without any snow equipment. After zero day I start paying more attention to satellite imagery, reading trip reports on WTA.org, watching social media posts in hiking groups, and day hiking the PCT to see trail conditions for myself. I use all this information to produce the weekly trail reports until the trail is ~95% snow free.

People are often surprised that it takes another three weeks after zero day, but it consistently does. In a fast melt year it might be closer to two weeks, but in a slow melt year it can be more than three weeks. "I was fine. Go for it!" is what many people say when they went hiking on snow without spike or axe and had no problems. Know that was luck, not any measure of trail conditions that you should consider in your own decision making. As they say; you only need your axe in your hand once. That one time you need it might be on the last patch of snow to melt on the PCT. Know the conditions, know your skills, and make your own choices for yourself (not for others).

Typical Melt Order

If the snow distribution is fairly even, then the sections will typically clear of snow in this order:

Section I, North (Naches Pass to Snoqualmie Pass)
Section H, South (Columbia River to Williams Mine, Indian Heaven (Trout Lake))
Section K, North (Suiattle Bridge to Rainy Pass)
Section L (Rainy Pass to Canada) In 2026 this was #8
Section I, Mid (Chinook Pass to Naches Pass) In 2026 this was #3.
Section I, South (White Pass to Chinook Pass)
Section H, Mid (Mt Adams, Williams Mine to Midway)
Section J (Snoqualmie Pass to Stevens Pass)
Section K, South (Steven Pass to Suiattle Bridge, Glacier Peak)
Section H, North (Midway to White Pass, Goat Rocks)

Typically on zero day one or two of these sections will already be 100% snow free.

Exception: Old Snowy Mountain, Goat Rocks Wilderness

The trail above Packwood Glacier (long since melted) on the NW side of Old Snowy Mountain is the high point of the PCT in WA (7,200 ft), and also Oregon if you take the high route (7,596 ft). This patch of snow never completely melts. However, the alternate high route melts out relatively early. So this specific spot has never been a blocking issue. Some of the last snow to melt is a mile north and a mile south of there. So, Goat Rocks is worth watching when tracking the melt. The second highest point on the PCT is Devils Stairway near the Canadian border (7,070 ft.) where there is another tenacious patch of snow.

Step 2. Use Satellite Imagery

In 2023 the PCTA added many new image overlay options to its ArcGIS (geographic information system) map. Two of those overlays are useful for monitoring snow on the trail, the NOHRSC data, and the Sentinel-2 images. Both layers are listed in the Imagery and Conditions portion of the overlay menu in the right pane.

I have not found the NOHRSC imagery useful for evaluating trail conditions because it is too low resolution. One pixel is something like 75 acres. So, a given "pixel" color is often contrary to actual trail conditions there. It's more useful for seeing snow depth and distribution just before the melt begins.

The Sentinel-2 images can reveal exactly where there is snow on the trail If there is no cloud cover. The S2 satellite scans the PCT in WA every 5 days. If there is less then 30% cloud cover, then the images on the PCTA ArcGIS map update just as quickly as those one can retrieve directly from Sentinel-2. If there is more than 30% cloud cover, then I have to do some work to use the images.

Satellite Imagery

Early start pros and cons

A great thing about getting on the trail early in the season is the long summer day. The summer solstice is on June 20th, offering hikers just under 16 hours of daylight from 5:08 AM to 9:06 PM. Unfortunately, the snow and slush typically do not melt off the PCT for weeks after the solstice. Another benefit of early season hiking is that water sources are abundant. A third benefit is warm nights. The bad thing about getting on the trail early is the emergence of mosquitoes when water has melted and daytime highs are hot. The mosquito population starts big and tapers off throughout the summer. Only the females drink blood. They become lethargic at 60F and they are unable to fly below 50F. The Indian Heaven area is famously thick with mosquitoes. However, bugs are on trail all summer long so they should not be a primary factor in planning the time of your hike. These pros and cons are reversed for late season hiking; fewer bugs, fewer water options, less daylight, cooler temps.

Fall Planning

Fall is a gorgeous time to hike in WA, especially after Labor Day when the crowds of day hikers thin out. The two issues most impacting backpacking in the fall are the dropping temperatures and the shortening days.

Fall Daylight

September 22 is the Autumnal Equinox. The daylight lasts for 12 hours and 9 minutes. The equinox is not when there is 12 hours of daylight. That is the equilux which occurs two days later on September 24th when the sun rises at 6:55 AM and sets at 6:55 PM. The low angle of the suns path means longer twilight.

Fall Temperatures and Snow

After the equinox is typically when the nights start freezing at 6,000 ft.

In 2025 September 15th was the first morning to dip below 40F at Harts Pass. Then again on 9/22. Freezing temperatures first arrived on 9/26. That entire day stayed below 40F. But that was a one-off. Temps stayed above 40F until 9/29. Then each night stayed below 40F. Freezing temps arrived again on 10/3. 10/5 had a low of 27F and 10/6 stayed below 40F. Freezing winter temperatures came to stay on 10/10

The first significant snowfall of the year

In the fall there are typically multiple cycles of snow falling then completely melting, before it begins accumulating. Accumulation might not occur until very late in the year.

The first day at least 1" of snow accumulated.

2014 Oct 23th
2015 Oct 31st
2016 Oct 14th
2017 Oct 13th
2018 Sep 30th
2019 Sep 27th (then got colder fast)
2020 Sep 27th (Then got really hot for a few more days)
2021 Sep 29th
2022 Oct 24th (Oct 21 was the first night below freezing)
2023 Nov 11th (Nov 1st was the first night below freezing)
2024 Oct 27th (Sept 29 was the first night below freezing) Snow dusting 10/17 and 10/20.
2025 Oct 26th was the first day of consistent snow accumulation.
2026 Snowstorms with temperatures well below freezing came Sep 13, Sep 26, Oct 9, Oct 11. Each time the snow melted after a day or two. October was very cold and very dry. Snow finally came to stay on October 25th 2026.

Source: The Air & Water Database is maintained by the USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Other Factors to Consider When Timing Your Trip

Water sources

Some sections of the PCT have few year-round water sources (Chinook Pass to Naches Pass) so hiking in August and September may force you to carefully plan your water. Whereas hiking in July usually offers a bounty of seasonal water sources. Know all your water options before you go, both the reliable ones and the others. Because water is likely the heaviest thing in your pack, it's just good sense to manage your water economically.

Hot days

I covered cold nights above, but another temperture issue is hot days. A heat wave can occur anytime during the hiking season, so they are difficult to predict and avoid. Personally, I worry more about cold nights than hot days because I am willing split my hiking days to have a siesta when the heat peaks between 2:00 and 4:00 PM. I start hiking before sunrise, I cook my main meal during siesta, and I try to make camp close to sunset where I eat leftovers. I try to work swims into my schedule, and wet my hair and clothes at water sources, I like to wear a long sleeve shirt and wet the sleeves and collar. Some people even hike at night, which I like to do only when there is bright moonlight

The Sky (2027)

Sometimes I choose hiking dates based on the moon cycle or even meteors, comets, or eclipses. Night hiking in a full moon is one of my favorite things. You may want to factor these events into your planning. Here are some things to look for in the night sky this summer

Full Moons

June 18 - Strawberry Moon
July 18 - Buck Moon
August 17 - Sturgeon Moon
September 15 - Harvest Moon
October 15 - Hunters Moon

Meteor Showers

Meteor Showers occur when the earth passes through a debris field left by a comet or asteroid. The peak is when the earth is in the densest part of the debris field. Meteor showers are named for the star constellation they appear to radiate from. Here I've only listed showers that peak between June and October in the northern hemisphere.

In 2027 the Perseids will peak August 12th & 13th. On that night the moon will be 81% full.

The Perseids come from the Swift-Tuttle Comet which is on a 133 year cycle. The last close encounter was 1992. The next will be 2125

Events

Some people like to plan around events such as Pacific Crest Trail Days at Cascade Locks August 20 & 21, 2027

People

Do you want to avoid other people? This is usually more of a where issue than a when issue, but here the WA PCT is a given. Some people seek solitude, some people feel more comfortable in numbers. These days the PCT is quite busy in peak season so solitude can be difficult in popular sections. You might choose to avoid the weekend day hikers who access the trail from paved roads by planning to cross those mid-week. The trail is popular with section hikers from the Independence day weekend to the Labor Day weekend. Then activity declines a bit through September. However, September is when many of the thru hikers are in Washington. It can be fun to hike the northern section, going southbound, in late September because you will pass many thru hikers as they finally close in on the Canadian border.

Fire

Unfortunately, you cannot predict fires ahead of time. They tend to ruin plans at the last minute. In recent years fires have plagued the entire backpacking season, from before the snow melts to when it starts falling again. The best way to plan for fire is to know all your options for exiting the trail if needed. I also recommend you carry a mask to protect yourself from smoke and ash if needed. It's almost weightless and far better than a bandana or buff.

For section hikers I recommend hiking Section L as soon as possible because its most susceptible to fire.

Sentinel-2 History

This information is useful to me when too much cloud cover makes a satellite photo useless. I can do some math to select a historical photo that is most relevant.

In 2026 we got useful photos on:

2026 June 15th 65% clouds
2026 June 20th 5% clouds
2026 June 30th 40% clouds
2025 June 30th 1% clouds
2025 June 15th 1% clouds
2025 July 5th 36% clouds
2025 July 12th 10% clouds
2025 July 15th 1% clouds
2024 June 10th 8% clouds
2024 June 20th 30% clouds
2024 June 25th 1% clouds
2024 July 5th 1% clouds
2024 July 10th 1% clouds
2024 July 15th 1% clouds

Harts Pass Sensor zero day:
2026 June 13th
2025 June 5th (2026 date -8)
2024 June 16th (2026 date +3)